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PoissoNed!

Total Goals

Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
% Your estimation of home team's winning probability (1-99%). 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). 
% Your estimation of away team's winning probability (1-99%). 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Expected Goals (xG)

Expected number of goals scored by home team (eg. 1.5) 
Expected number of goals scored by away team (eg. 1.0) 
Select this only if you want to adjust the probability field to your own 1x2 percentages. 
% Your estimation of home team's winning probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
% Your estimation of away team's winning probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
Optionally you can enter a multiplier to adjust the draw percentage. For example 1.2 will add 20% to the tie probability. Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' IS NOT selected. 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Power Ratings

For example if home team's power rating value is 2 times bigger than away team's then the home win probability will be 2 times more than away win. 
For example if home team's power rating value is 2 times bigger than away team's then the home win probability will be 2 times more than away win. 
Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
Optionally you can enter a multiplier to adjust the draw percentage. For example 1.2 will add 20% to the tie probability. Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' IS NOT selected. 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Elo ratings (Pro)

Guide: World Football Elo Ratings

 
 
Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
Optionally you can enter a multiplier to adjust the draw percentage. For example 1.2 will add 20% to the tie probability. Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' IS NOT selected. 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Settings

This amount will be used in optimum stake calculations. 
Optionally divides the optimum stake provided by Kelly formula. 

Poisson Distribution Guide   Correct score betting: What you need to know
Soccer goal probabilities: Poisson vs actual distribution
PoissoNed! Ultimate
Correct Score | Handicaps | Asian Handicap | 1x2 Handicaps | Total Goals | Team Totals

1x2 %42.5% - 27.8% - 29.8% (2.35 - 3.60 - 3.36)
Moneyline 58.8% - 41.2% (1.70 - 2.43)
Double Chance 1x  70.2%(1.42)
Double Chance x2  57.5%(1.74)
Double Chance 12  72.2%(1.38)
Goal Average (Home - Away)1.300 - 1.040

Roma Goal Probabilities

0 27.3%
(3.67)		 1 35.4%
(2.82)		 2 23.0%
(4.34)		 3 10.0%
(10.02)		 4 3.2%
(30.83)		 5 0.8%
(118.59)


Lazio Goal Probabilities

0 35.3%
(2.83)		 1 36.8%
(2.72)		 2 19.1%
(5.23)		 3 6.6%
(15.09)		 4 1.7%
(58.04)		 5 0.4%
(279.05)

Any other goal <1%

Correct Score - Top of Page

Roma%OddsTie %OddsLazio% Odds
1-012.5%7.990-09.6%10.380-110.0%9.98
2-08.1%12.291-113.0%7.680-25.2%19.20
2-18.5%11.812-24.4%22.720-31.8%55.37
3-03.5%28.353-30.7%151.220-40.5%212.97
3-13.7%27.264-40.1%1789.640-50.1%1023.91
3-21.9%52.42-1-26.8%14.77
4-01.1%87.23-1-32.3%42.59
4-11.2%83.88-1-40.6%163.83
4-20.6%161.31-1-50.1%787.63
4-30.2%465.31-2-31.5%65.53
5-00.3%335.52-2-40.4%252.04
5-10.3%322.61-2-50.1%1211.73
5-20.2%620.41-3-40.2%581.63
5-30.1%1789.64--
6-00.1%1548.54--
6-10.1%1488.98--

Other results <0.05%
Results (0,1,2,3) - (0,1,2,3) probability: 93.6% (1.07)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) - (0,1,2,3): 6.4% (15.70)


Teams to Score - Top of Page

Roma to score72.7% (1.37)
Lazio to score64.7% (1.55)
Neither Team To Score9.6% (10.38)
One Team To Score Only43.3% (2.31)
Both Teams To Score47.0% (2.13)
Scoring Draw18.1% (5.51)

Special - Top of Page

Roma Win To Nil25.7% (3.89)
Lazio Win To Nil17.6% (5.68)
Roma Win by One Goal  23.1% (4.32)
Lazio Win by One Goal  18.5% (5.41)
Total Goals - Even  50.5% (1.98)
Total Goals - Odd  49.5% (2.02)

Handicaps - Top of Page

Roma -0.5 : Lazio +0.5 42.5% - 57.5% (2.35 - 1.74)
Roma -1.5 : Lazio +1.5 19.3% - 80.7% (5.17 - 1.24)
Roma -2.5 : Lazio +2.5 6.9% - 93.1% (14.59 - 1.07)
Roma +0.5 : Lazio -0.5 70.2% - 29.8% (1.42 - 3.36)
Roma +1.5 : Lazio -1.5 88.7% - 11.3% (1.13 - 8.89)

Asian Handicap - Top of Page

Roma -2.5 : Lazio +2.5 6.9% - 93.1% (14.59 - 1.07)
Roma -2.0 & -2.5 : Lazio +2.0 & +2.5 7.3% - 92.7% (13.68 - 1.08)
Roma -2.0 : Lazio +2.0 7.8% - 92.2% (12.77 - 1.08)
Roma -1.5 & -2.0 : Lazio +1.5 & +2.0 14.0% - 86.0% (7.16 - 1.16)
Roma -1.5 : Lazio +1.5 19.3% - 80.7% (5.17 - 1.24)
Roma -1.0 & -1.5 : Lazio +1.0 & +1.5 21.9% - 78.1% (4.57 - 1.28)
Roma -1.0 : Lazio +1.0 25.2% - 74.8% (3.97 - 1.34)
Roma -0.5 & -1.0 : Lazio +0.5 & +1.0 34.9% - 65.1% (2.86 - 1.54)
Roma -0.5 : Lazio +0.5 42.5% - 57.5% (2.35 - 1.74)
Roma 0 & -0.5 : Lazio 0 & +0.5 49.3% - 50.7% (2.03 - 1.97)
Roma 0 : Lazio 0 58.8% - 41.2% (1.70 - 2.43)
Roma 0 & +0.5 : Lazio 0 & -0.5 65.4% - 34.6% (1.53 - 2.89)
Roma +0.5 : Lazio -0.5 70.2% - 29.8% (1.42 - 3.36)
Roma +0.5 & +1.0 : Lazio -0.5 & -1.0 77.4% - 22.6% (1.29 - 4.43)
Roma +1.0 : Lazio -1.0 86.2% - 13.8% (1.16 - 7.24)
Roma +1.0 & +1.5 : Lazio -1.0 & -1.5 87.6% - 12.4% (1.14 - 8.06)
Roma +1.5 : Lazio -1.5 88.7% - 11.3% (1.13 - 8.89)
Roma +1.5 & +2.0 : Lazio -1.5 & -2.0 92.4% - 7.6% (1.08 - 13.23)

1x2 Handicaps - Top of Page

Roma -1 : Lazio +119.3% - 23.1% % - 57.5% (5.17 - 4.32 - 1.74)
Roma -2 : Lazio +26.9% - 12.5% % - 80.7% (14.59 - 8.01 - 1.24)
Roma +1 : Lazio -170.2% - 18.5% - 11.3% (1.42 - 5.41 - 8.89)
Roma +2 : Lazio -288.7% - 8.0% % - 3.3% (1.13 - 12.51 - 30.65)

Total Goals - Top of Page
OverUnder
0.5 goals 90.4% (1.11) 9.6% (10.38)
1.5 goals 67.8% (1.47) 32.2% (3.11)
2.5 goals 41.5% (2.41) 58.5% (1.71)
3.5 goals 20.9% (4.79) 79.1% (1.26)
4.5 goals 8.8% (11.30) 91.2% (1.10)

Total Goals Moneyline
OverUnder
1 goals 87.6% (1.14) 12.4% (8.04)
2 goals 56.3% (1.78) 43.7% (2.29)
3 goals 26.3% (3.80) 73.7% (1.36)
4 goals 10.1% (9.94) 89.9% (1.11)

Total Goals - Top of Page
0 goals 9.6% (10.38)
0-1 goals 32.2% (3.11)
1 goals 22.5% (4.44)
1-2 goals 48.9% (2.04)
2 goals 26.4% (3.79)
2-3 goals 46.9% (2.13)
3 goals 20.6% (4.86)
3-4 goals 32.6% (3.07)
4 goals 12.0% (8.31)
4-5 goals 17.7% (5.66)
5 goals 5.6% (17.76)
5-6 goals 7.8% (12.77)

Team Totals - Top of Page
Roma OverUnder
0.5 goals 72.7% (1.37) 27.3% (3.67)
1.5 goals 37.3% (2.68) 62.7% (1.60)
2.5 goals 14.3% (7.00) 85.7% (1.17)
Lazio OverUnder
0.5 goals 64.7% (1.55) 35.3% (2.83)
1.5 goals 27.9% (3.58) 72.1% (1.39)
2.5 goals 8.8% (11.39) 91.2% (1.10)


Team Totals Moneyline - Top of Page
Roma OverUnder
1 goals 57.8% (1.73) 42.2% (2.37)
2 goals 18.6% (5.39) 81.4% (1.23)
Lazio OverUnder
1 goals 44.1% (2.27) 55.9% (1.79)
2 goals 10.9% (9.21) 89.1% (1.12)




What you get with PoissoNed! Pro:

Calculates from your input values:
- Goal probabilities
- Correct score probabilities and odds
- More Asian Handicaps probabilities
- Elo ratings probability calculations
- Teams to Score -probabilities (home team to score, away team to score, neither team to score, one team to score only, both teams to score, scoring draw)
- Special probabilities: home team win to nil, away team win to nil, home team win by one goal, away team win by one goal, number of goals even/odd
- Handicaps with draw option
- Game Totals specials (for example: 0-1 goals scored, 1-2 goals scored, exactly 1 goal scored etc.)
- Team Totals
- Team Totals Moneyline
- Finnish: Vienti Monivetoavun ja Tulosvetoavun omiin rajakertoimiin
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Pro Demo

PoissoNed! Pro 1 month$10.98
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution. Usable mainly in soccer.
PoissoNed! Ultimate 2 days$13.64
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution and statistics database. Usable mainly in soccer.
PoissoNed! Pro 12 months$107.76
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution. Usable mainly in soccer.
PoissoNed! Ultimate 1 month$108.90
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution and statistics database. Usable mainly in soccer.
PoissoNed! Ultimate 1 year$657.80
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution and statistics database. Usable mainly in soccer.
PoissoNed! 1x2 → Asian Handicap 1 month$10.98
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Calculates Asian Handicap probabilities from 1x2 and over / under 2.5 goals odds. Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution. Usable in soccer.
PoissoNed! 1x2 → Asian Handicap 12 months$107.76
incl. VAT 24%		 Buy from Web Store
Calculates Asian Handicap probabilities from 1x2 and over / under 2.5 goals odds. Mathematical tool for calculating various sports betting probabilities based on Poisson distribution. Usable in soccer.
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