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Poisson Distribution [Wiki]

PoissoNed! calculates various probabilities from expected goal values or game totals using Poisson distribution formula and optionally adjusts the results to any 1x2 (home-draw-away) percentages. It uses all the results between 0 and 30 goals for both teams when calculating probabilities. Poisson formula works best for soccer but you can use it in many sports.

Current version: 2.5.8 (2.3.2010) Click here for old version

What's new: PoissoNed menu now loads much faster

PoissoNed! Pro subscription, costs 15 Credits (€7.47+) 1 MONTH. Buy Credits.

What you get with PoissoNed! Pro:

- Goal probabilities
- Correct score probabilities and odds
- More Asian Handicaps probabilities
- Teams to Score -probabilities (home team to score, away team to score, neither team to score, one team to score only, both teams to score, scoring draw)
- Special probabilities: home team win to nil, away team win to nil, home team win by one goal, away team win by one goal, number of goals even/odd
- Handicaps with draw option
- Game Totals specials (for example: 0-1 goals scored, 1-2 goals scored, exactly 1 goal scored etc.)
- Team Totals
- Team Totals Moneyline
- No banner advertising in PoissoNed! -pages

Pro Demo
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Total Goals

Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
% Your estimation of home team's winning probability (1-99%). 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). 
% Your estimation of away team's winning probability (1-99%). 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Goal Expectation

Expected number of goals scored by home team (eg. 1.5) 
Expected number of goals scored by away team (eg. 1.0) 
Select this only if you want to adjust the probability field to your own 1x2 percentages. 
% Your estimation of home team's winning probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
% Your estimation of away team's winning probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
Optionally you can enter a multiplier to adjust the draw percentage. For example 1.2 will add 20% to the tie probability. Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' IS NOT selected. 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Power Ratings

For example if home team's power rating value is 2 times bigger than away team's then the home win probability will be 2 times more than away win. 
For example if home team's power rating value is 2 times bigger than away team's then the home win probability will be 2 times more than away win. 
Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Settings

This amount will be used in optimum stake calculations. 
Optionally divides the optimum stake provided by Kelly formula. 
% Betting exchanges normally charges a commission on your net winnings on a market. Enter your commission percentage and PoissoNed takes it into account in the betting odds. 
% Betting exchanges normally charges a commission on your net winnings on a market. Enter your commission percentage and PoissoNed takes it into account in the betting odds. 


Correct Score | Handicaps | Asian Handicap | 1x2 Handicaps | Total Goals | Team Totals

1x2 %34.6% - 25.0% - 40.4% (2.89 - 4.01 - 2.47)
Moneyline 46.1% - 53.9% (2.17 - 1.86)
Double Chance 1x  59.6%(1.68)
Double Chance x2  65.4%(1.53)
Double Chance 12  75.0%(1.33)
Goal Average (Home - Away)1.360 - 1.490

Liverpool Goal Probabilities

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Man Utd Goal Probabilities

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Correct Score - Top of Page

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Teams to Score - Top of Page

Liverpool to scorePoissoNed! Pro
Man Utd to scorePoissoNed! Pro
Neither Team To ScorePoissoNed! Pro
One Team To Score OnlyPoissoNed! Pro
Both Teams To ScorePoissoNed! Pro
Scoring DrawPoissoNed! Pro

Special - Top of Page

Liverpool Win To NilPoissoNed! Pro
Man Utd Win To NilPoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool Win by One Goal  PoissoNed! Pro
Man Utd Win by One Goal  PoissoNed! Pro
Total Goals - Even  PoissoNed! Pro
Total Goals - Odd  PoissoNed! Pro

Handicaps - Top of Page

Liverpool -0.5 : Man Utd +0.5 34.6% - 65.4% (2.89 - 1.53)
Liverpool -1.5 : Man Utd +1.5 15.6% - 84.4% (6.43 - 1.18)
Liverpool -2.5 : Man Utd +2.5 5.5% - 94.5% (18.02 - 1.06)
Liverpool +0.5 : Man Utd -0.5 59.6% - 40.4% (1.68 - 2.47)
Liverpool +1.5 : Man Utd -1.5 80.4% - 19.6% (1.24 - 5.11)
Liverpool +2.5 : Man Utd -2.5 92.4% - 7.6% (1.08 - 13.21)

Asian Handicap - Top of Page

Liverpool -2.5 : Man Utd +2.5 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool -2.0 & -2.5 : Man Utd +2.0 & +2.5 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool -2.0 : Man Utd +2.0 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool -1.5 & -2.0 : Man Utd +1.5 & +2.0 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool -1.5 : Man Utd +1.5 15.6% - 84.4% (6.43 - 1.18)
Liverpool -1.0 & -1.5 : Man Utd +1.0 & +1.5 17.4% - 82.6% (5.75 - 1.21)
Liverpool -1.0 : Man Utd +1.0 19.2% - 80.8% (5.20 - 1.24)
Liverpool -0.5 & -1.0 : Man Utd +0.5 & +1.0 26.9% - 73.1% (3.72 - 1.37)
Liverpool -0.5 : Man Utd +0.5 34.6% - 65.4% (2.89 - 1.53)
Liverpool 0 & -0.5 : Man Utd 0 & +0.5 40.3% - 59.7% (2.48 - 1.68)
Liverpool 0 : Man Utd 0 46.1% - 53.9% (2.17 - 1.86)
Liverpool 0 & +0.5 : Man Utd 0 & -0.5 52.8% - 47.2% (1.89 - 2.12)
Liverpool +0.5 : Man Utd -0.5 59.6% - 40.4% (1.68 - 2.47)
Liverpool +0.5 & +1.0 : Man Utd -0.5 & -1.0 67.4% - 32.6% (1.48 - 3.07)
Liverpool +1.0 : Man Utd -1.0 75.3% - 24.7% (1.33 - 4.04)
Liverpool +1.0 & +1.5 : Man Utd -1.0 & -1.5 77.8% - 22.2% (1.28 - 4.51)
Liverpool +1.5 : Man Utd -1.5 80.4% - 19.6% (1.24 - 5.11)
Liverpool +1.5 & +2.0 : Man Utd -1.5 & -2.0 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool +2.0 : Man Utd -2.0 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool +2.0 & +2.5 : Man Utd -2.0 & -2.5 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool +2.5 : Man Utd -2.5 PoissoNed! Pro
Liverpool +2.5 & +3.0 : Man Utd -2.5 & -3.0 PoissoNed! Pro

1x2 Handicaps - Top of Page

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Total Goals - Top of Page
OverUnder
0.5 goals 94.2% (1.06) 5.8% (17.29)
1.5 goals 77.7% (1.29) 22.3% (4.49)
2.5 goals 54.2% (1.84) 45.8% (2.19)
3.5 goals 31.9% (3.13) 68.1% (1.47)
4.5 goals 16.0% (6.24) 84.0% (1.19)
5.5 goals 7.0% (14.38) 93.0% (1.07)

Total Goals Moneyline
OverUnder
1 goals 93.1% (1.07) 6.9% (14.44)
2 goals 70.9% (1.41) 29.1% (3.44)
3 goals 41.1% (2.43) 58.9% (1.70)
4 goals 19.0% (5.25) 81.0% (1.24)
5 goals 7.6% (13.07) 92.4% (1.08)

Team Totals - Top of Page
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Team Totals Moneyline - Top of Page
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