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Poisson Distribution [Wiki]

PoissoNed! calculates various probabilities from expected goal values or game totals using Poisson distribution formula and optionally adjusts the results to any 1x2 (home-draw-away) percentages. It uses all the results between 0 and 30 goals for both teams when calculating probabilities. Poisson formula works best for soccer but you can use it in many sports.

Current version: 2.5.8 (2.3.2010) Click here for old version

What's new: PoissoNed menu now loads much faster

PoissoNed! Pro subscription, costs 15 Credits (€7.47+) 1 MONTH. Buy Credits.

What you get with PoissoNed! Pro:

- Goal probabilities
- Correct score probabilities and odds
- More Asian Handicaps probabilities
- Teams to Score -probabilities (home team to score, away team to score, neither team to score, one team to score only, both teams to score, scoring draw)
- Special probabilities: home team win to nil, away team win to nil, home team win by one goal, away team win by one goal, number of goals even/odd
- Handicaps with draw option
- Game Totals specials (for example: 0-1 goals scored, 1-2 goals scored, exactly 1 goal scored etc.)
- Team Totals
- Team Totals Moneyline
- No banner advertising in PoissoNed! -pages

Pro Demo
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PoissoNed!

Total Goals

Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
% Your estimation of home team's winning probability (1-99%). 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). 
% Your estimation of away team's winning probability (1-99%). 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Goal Expectation

Expected number of goals scored by home team (eg. 1.5) 
Expected number of goals scored by away team (eg. 1.0) 
Select this only if you want to adjust the probability field to your own 1x2 percentages. 
% Your estimation of home team's winning probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
% Your estimation of away team's winning probability (1-99%). Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' is selected. 
Optionally you can enter a multiplier to adjust the draw percentage. For example 1.2 will add 20% to the tie probability. Works only when 'Adjust 1x2% Distribution' IS NOT selected. 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Power Ratings

For example if home team's power rating value is 2 times bigger than away team's then the home win probability will be 2 times more than away win. 
For example if home team's power rating value is 2 times bigger than away team's then the home win probability will be 2 times more than away win. 
Your estimation of total goals scored (eg. 2.5). 
% Your estimation of tie probability (1-99%). 
% Default is 100% that shows you the fair odds (no booker margin). 
 Reset

Settings

This amount will be used in optimum stake calculations. 
Optionally divides the optimum stake provided by Kelly formula. 
% Betting exchanges normally charges a commission on your net winnings on a market. Enter your commission percentage and PoissoNed takes it into account in the betting odds. 
% Betting exchanges normally charges a commission on your net winnings on a market. Enter your commission percentage and PoissoNed takes it into account in the betting odds. 




PoissoNed! probability estimations by AnnaBet.com users